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Accountancy firms and professional bodies have welcomed the chancellor’s emphasis on fiscal stability in the Spring Forecast, while cautioning that weak growth, fiscal drag, and global uncertainty continue to weigh on the outlook.
Updated figures from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) showed the chancellor’s headroom rising to £23.6bn, up from £21.7bn in November. However, the OBR cut its 2026 growth forecast to 1.1% from 1.4%, while predicting inflation will fall to 2.3% this year.
David Ward, partner and head of specialist taxes at Johnston Carmichael, said the Spring Statement provided “much-needed certainty for businesses”, but warned that ongoing global events could add pressure.
He said: “While the Spring Statement was largely predictable, the impact of global events, particularly the Middle East conflict and rising energy costs, is still a key concern for businesses.”
Ward highlighted that stability supports investment and hiring, but firms still need targeted measures to boost growth, such as investment incentives and help with employment costs.
He welcomed the increase in the APR/BPR threshold and pledged action on youth unemployment, now above 16% among 16–24-year-olds. “Consistency and predictability are themselves a form of stimulus,” he added. “A tax environment that holds steady gives businesses confidence to make long-term decisions, even amid external shocks.”
Commenting on the wider outlook, KPMG UK said the Forecast largely reiterated previous announcements, aiming to avoid a second fiscal event before the Autumn Budget.
Although 2027 growth expectations remain relatively optimistic at 1.6%, KPMG cautioned that assumptions for productivity and long-term growth could leave room for future downgrades.
Deloitte UK highlighted the absence of new tax measures but noted that many previously legislated changes will take effect in 2026, with around 50 tax areas under review. Amanda Tickel, head of tax and trade policy, said: “The UK tax landscape continues to evolve…we expect to see progress on some of these in the next few weeks.”
Meanwhile, the ACCA welcomed the single fiscal event, saying it promotes simplicity and certainty. Gemma Gathercole, Strategic Engagement Lead for England, emphasised the combined impact of global and domestic pressures: “With challenging headwinds, the economic picture globally looks unsettled, and developments in the Middle East are clearly an important risk on both the growth and inflation fronts.”
She added that upcoming tax changes, including higher dividend tax rates, capital gains adjustments, business rates revaluation, and the expansion of Making Tax Digital, could increase pressure on small businesses and sole traders.
The Institute of Chartered Accountants of Scotland (ICAS) also cautioned that frozen tax thresholds are undermining growth through fiscal drag, pushing more earners into higher tax bands.
Gail Boag, chief executive, said: “Inflation may be easing, but many households are still struggling with the impact of the cost-of-living crisis. Any expected lift in living standards is being wiped out by fiscal drag, reducing disposable income and hitting lower income families hardest – especially those who spend more of their money on essentials like food, fuel and housing. Fiscal drag asks people to do more with less. Forcing households to stretch their shrinking budgets even further doesn’t incentivise work at a time of high unemployment, fails to boost productivity or spending, and erodes trust in the tax system.
“Relying on fiscal drag to raise revenue by default rather than by design isn’t a sustainable substitute for strategy. The government needs to use the time between now and the Autumn Budget to set out a clear, long-term tax strategy that genuinely supports work, attracts investment and drives economic growth.”
