Profit warnings from UK-listed companies fall 11% in Q1, EY finds

UK-listed companies issued 62 profit warnings during Q1 2025, a decrease of 11% year-on-year, according to data from EY.

However, the proportion of listed firms issuing warnings in the last 12 months remains high at 18%.

EY found that the leading factor behind profit warnings in Q1 was contract and order cancellations or delays, cited in 40% of warnings, the highest percentage recorded for this cause in 25 years of EY’s analysis.

Policy change and geopolitical uncertainty (26%) and labour market issues (18%) were cited as the other main drivers for warnings during Q1.

So far in Q2, half (50%) of the profit warnings issued by UK-listed businesses in April cited the direct or indirect impact of tariffs and resulting recent global trade disruption.

The average share price fall on the day of warning also climbed, up from 13% in Q4 2024 to 17% in Q1 2025 and almost a fifth (19%) in April 2025.

Jo Robinson, EY-Parthenon partner and UK&I turnaround and restructuring strategy leader, said: “The first quarter of 2025 may now feel like a different era for many businesses, but the latest profit warnings data reveals underlying weaknesses that will be magnified by recent tariff disruptions and the resulting economic fallout.Nearly one in five listed firms issued a warning in the last 12 months and that’s a level typically associated with a period of economic shock.

“UK businesses have faced unprecedented challenges in recent years and have developed admirable levels of resilience in response, which should serve many well as the global economy navigates the coming months of uncertainty. At times like these, businesses must focus on staying nimble by planning for a range of different scenarios and continuing to build operational and financial resilience.”

Claire Gambles, EY-Parthenon turnaround and restructuring strategy partner, added: “UK companies have faced many challenges in recent years, but ongoing global trade disruption has the potential to bring even more substantial and far-reaching repercussions. Demand and supply shocks from the pandemic and geopolitical events were significant but primarily cyclical disruptions, whereas major changes to international trade policy may have more enduring effects.

“Naturally, these changes won’t happen immediately, and companies will need to balance immediate responses, such as strengthening financial resilience, with strategic shifts, whether by reassessing supply chains and pricing models or exploring new global partnerships, to help respond to further uncertainty over the coming months.”