UK business confidence rises ahead of Autumn Budget, BDO finds

UK business confidence rose slightly in September as companies pinned their hopes on further interest rate cuts this year despite a weakening labour market, stubborn inflation and uncertainty around the new Labour Government’s first Autumn Budget, BDO finds. 

The BDO Optimism Index rose to 100.42, remaining above the 100-point mark for a fifth consecutive month – a strong indicator of confidence in the business community. 

However, this increased optimism stands in contrast to the challenges faced by many businesses. The BDO Output Index dropped by 1.52 points to 98.19 in September, as both the manufacturing and services sectors struggled to maintain momentum from the previous month.

Manufacturing, in particular, faced renewed job cuts due to subdued demand, while supply chain disruptions and rising shipping costs, exacerbated by the Red Sea crisis, have led to longer delivery times and higher raw material costs. 

While output in the services sector also dipped compared to the previous month, it remained elevated relative to the last two years and above the 95-point mark that indicates overall growth. This was largely fuelled by a rise in domestic demand, notably across the technology, real estate and leisure sub-sectors. 

However, businesses within the service sector have noted that uncertainty surrounding the upcoming Autumn Budget has prompted clients to delay their investment decisions.

The BDO Inflation Index eased slightly in September, dropping to 96.41. But whilst input prices decreased, the persistent rise in consumer prices – particularly for services – suggests that inflationary pressures could resurface in the coming months.

Meanwhile, the BDO Employment Index saw its fifteenth consecutive decline, dropping to 95.45 – its lowest point since January 2013.

The loosening labour market is evidenced by slowing wage growth and a continued decline in job vacancies. Although the Bank of England’s recent interest rate cut has been welcomed, its effects have yet to filter through to the labour market, meaning relief for job seekers could be slow to arrive. 

Kaley Crossthwaite, partner at BDO, said: “As the Autumn Budget draws closer, businesses are looking to the new Government for a clear roadmap. Optimism may prove fragile if policy decisions don’t deliver the necessary support and clarity, especially whilst the Employment Index shows signs of sustained weakness. 

“Promising areas like technology offer a beacon of hope, but targeted government investment, especially around skills development, is needed to help stimulate jobs growth.”